{"id":113,"date":"2026-05-18T22:35:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T22:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phoenixrelocationnews.com\/?p=113"},"modified":"2026-05-18T22:35:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T22:35:29","slug":"there-might-be-a-super-el-nino-this-year-what-would-that-mean-for-phoenix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phoenixrelocationnews.com\/?p=113","title":{"rendered":"There might be a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o this year. What would that mean for Phoenix?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A rare \u201cSuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o is expected to hit the Pacific Ocean this fall, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration update that found there\u2019s a two in three chance that the weather pattern\u2019s peak strength will be strong or very strong.<\/p>\n

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But what will that mean for Phoenix? According to National Weather Service meteorologist Gabriel Lojero, a super El Ni\u00f1o would likely mean a stronger monsoon season, bringing heavier rainfall and stronger thunderstorms to the Valley.<\/p>\n

\u201cPotentially that August to October time frame could be very active for us,\u201d Lojero said, clarifying that NWS prefers the term \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o over \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. \u201cBut everything is going to be dependent on how the overall pattern develops and how active of a monsoon that it turns out to be.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when ocean surface temperatures warm in the tropical Pacific, specifically in the central and eastern regions. The warming temperatures often cause hurricanes from late August through September. If these hurricanes form along the southwest coast of Mexico, they can bring heavier rainfall and stronger storms to the desert southwest as they track northward and inland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Arizona\u2019s monsoon season runs officially from June 15 to September 30, and a super El Ni\u00f1o could bring heavier storms and more \u201cactive conditions\u201d in the back half of that season and into October, Lojero said. But just how active potential storms will be depends on activity in the eastern tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we get the deep tropical moisture, that could be a recipe for more heavy rain-producing events, and thus the heightened risk of flash flooding,\u201d Lojero said.<\/p>\n

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During last year\u2019s monsoon, the eastern Arizona cities of Globe and Miami were hit especially hard by heavy rain and flash floods in late September, leaving at least three people dead. Under super El Ni\u00f1o conditions, storms could be even worse this year. Lojero recommended that residents have a plan in place in case of flash flooding, including evacuation routes, and advised against driving into flooded roadways.<\/p>\n

\n

Will Phoenix be cooler this summer?<\/h2>\n

Outside of intense storms, the El Ni\u00f1o could also bring cooler temperatures and increase humidity. While the correlation between temperature and El Ni\u00f1o isn\u2019t as strong as that with rainfall, the phenomenon\u2019s increased moisture could help mitigate Phoenix\u2019s extreme heat. With temperatures cooled off by rain, Phoenix could see fewer triple-digit degree days, Lojero said. However, there\u2019d be less relief at night, as increased humidity could limit the \u201camount of overnight cooling.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

The impacts of a super El Ni\u00f1o will also be seen beyond October. The system, which typically begins in the fall and continues into winter, could also bring wetter conditions through Phoenix\u2019s winter months. A wetter winter would be a departure from the last couple of winters, which have been very dry.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s way too early to speculate what next winter is going to bring,\u201d Lojero said. \u201cHistorically speaking, usually when there are El Ni\u00f1o events, the winters tend to be a bit wetter than normal.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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If you’re hoping for a wet monsoon season in Phoenix this summer, you may be in luck. A strong El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could mean more rain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nThere might be a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o this year. 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